The Tories are close to losing half their support from 2019, the idea of a safe seat is
going to be very rare’ explained a special report in the Yorkshire Post on 14 March:
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/battleground-yorkshire-the-north-
south-divide-is-a-matter-of-live-and-death-for-voters-4557242. Under the heading
‘Battleground Yorkshire’ the paper’s Westminster correspondent Mason Boycott-
Owen will examine the stories behind the polls and over the next 12 weeks will
profile 12 constituencies which represent some of the biggest issues facing voters
Filling in the background Professor John Curtis the political scientist at the University
of Strathclyde explains: “The honest truth is that things are looking pretty bad for the
Conservatives, On average, the Conservatives are on about 25 points, that is 20
points down on what they achieved in 2019 and means that they are basically
bumping along at the same level they were in the immediate wake of the downfall of
Liz Trust in October 2022… .”

Turning to our Skipton and Ripon constituency, the report shows a Labour win in the
predicted vote in the next general election with Conservative 28% (from 59% in
2019) Labour 32% (from 19%) and Lib Dems 17% (from 15%). It adds: “A bastion of
grammar and private school education and market towns, the Gateway to the Dales
should be as Tory a seat as you can find. However, with this election set to
drastically redraw the electoral map of the country, the seat could be a signifier of a
dramatic Labour landslide.”

The last time the seat was won by a non-Tory was at the by-election in January 1944
when Hugh Lawson the Common Wealth candidate (the socialist party founded by
Sir Richard Acland) won the seat with a 200 vote majority over the Conservative
party candidate. The turnout was 54.9%. (More about this at:
https://www.barneshistorian.net/vm-skipton1944.php).

Barry White